Climate science does an about-face: dials back the ‘worst case scenario’

A surprising comment published January 29th in the leading scientific journal Nature said; “Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading – Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.” This has thrown a monkey wrench in hundreds of studies and media stories that previously predicted dire climate consequences in the future due to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere.

The consequences were predicted by a computer model called Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) and the worst case scenario model, RCP8.5 had been cited over 2500 times in scientific journals and in hundreds of media stories as the primary need for “urgent action” on climate. Predictions from RCP8.5 model suggested maximum global temperature increases of nearly 6°C (10.8°F) by the year 2100, shown in Figure 1.

clip_image002Figure 1 – Image Credit: Neil Craik, University of Waterloo

But, in the original scientific paper, RCP8.5 had just a slim 3% chance of becoming reality. Since climate alarmists (and some climate scientists) prefer to preach future doom in order to spur action, the predictions of RCP8.5 have become known as the “business-as-usual” scenario, even though it was nowhere close to that.

In a stunning walk-back, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the Breakthrough Institute, bucked the climate consensus and said that the RCP8.5 worst case scenario is unlikely to happen. The reason? We can’t get there given how much fossil fuel is being used now. The model assumes a 500% increase in the use of coal, which is now considered highly unlikely since coal use has dropped significantly, as seen in Figure 2.

clip_image004Figure 2 – Image credit: United States Energy Information Administration (EIA)

So with is new information that excludes the worst case RCP8.5 scenario, rather than predicting a future world that warms by 6°C (10.8°F), they’ll go to the next lower scenario RCP6 with warming by 2100 around 3°C (5.4 °F) .

However, in typical climate alarmist fashion, the two authors of this Nature article are pointing out that the lower temperatures due to this drop-off of coal use and the exclusion of RCP8.5 aren’t guaranteed.

The reason? Scientists are still uncertain as to how sensitive global temperatures are to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. The value, known as the Charney Sensitivity still isn’t known for certain, over 40 years after it was first introduced in 1979 by the United States National Academy of Sciences and chaired by Jule Charney. He estimated climate sensitivity to be 3 °C (5.4 °F), give or take 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).

Without knowing the true climate warming response to increased CO2, essentially all climate models become a crap-shoot. It is a glaring illustration of just how imprecise climate science actually is.

But, get this; new climate models are being used for the next set of major projections due from the IPCC next year known as AR6. Those models are said to show that temperatures are more sensitive to CO2 than previously thought.

So, with AR6 the higher numbers of the worst-case scenario are likely to be back on the table, along with continued calls for climate action in the form of reductions, alternate tech, and carbon taxation.

Inconveniently, there is another fly in the ointment. Even if the atmosphere turns out to be more sensitive to CO2 than they think, it is unlikely that the world will ever get to a doubling for CO2 in the atmosphere – the level on which climate sensitivity estimates are based. It turns out, based on a new calculation estimating if the world will get there, the answer is probably “no”.

Climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer did a model calculation the same week as this new Nature article was released and discovered something totally surprising. Using data from the EIA projecting that energy-based emissions of CO2 will grow at 0.6% per year until 2050, he plugged that data into a climate model. With the reasonable EIA assumptions regarding CO2 emissions, the climate model does not even reach a doubling of atmospheric CO2, but instead reaches an equilibrium CO2 concentration of 541 ppm in the mid-2200s.

Spencer writes: “[T]he result is that, given the latest projections of CO2 emissions, future CO2 concentrations will not only be well below the RCP8.5 scenario, but might not even be as high as RCP4.5, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations possibly not even reach a doubling (560 ppm) of estimated pre-Industrial levels (280 ppm) before leveling off. This result is even without future reductions in CO2 emissions, which is a possibility as new energy technologies become available.”

The RCP4.5 scenario suggests a range of warming of about 1.7 to 3.2°C (3-5.8°F) which doesn’t constitute a “climate emergency” and may even be beneficial to humankind. After all, humanity didn’t do well during cold periods in history, and another global ice-age would certainly be ruinous.

With this broad uncertainty about what the future climate will be, the bottom line on climate science predictions is well-served by the great Yogi Berra who famously said:

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”

Opinion by Anthony Watts


Anthony Watts is former television meteorologist and Senior Fellow for Environment and Climate for The Heartland InstituteHe operates the most viewed website on climate in the world, WattsUpWithThat.com

Source: Climate science does an about-face: dials back the ‘worst case scenario’ | Watts Up With That?

Charles Stanley – Unconditional Surrender

 

James 4:1-10

Sometimes we’re amazed by a believer’s perseverance and confidence in God’s promises. With such people, we often sense a spiritual abundance that many of us wish we had.  So, how do we get that? By following Jesus’ example and surrendering our life to God.

We may find it hard to submit to Jesus because we like to be in charge. This has been our problem since the beginning. Adam and Eve ignored God’s warning and did what they wanted, which ended in disaster. Like them, we at times prefer to ignore God’s wisdom.

Another reason that we hold back is fear. We think, Maybe I won’t like what He chooses for me—what if He asks me to give up something or do something I don’t want to do? Or perhaps we’re wary of others’ opinions. Another possibility is that we might let selfishness and pride make us reluctant to let God lead.

But by giving control to God, we actually get to live a life where blessings overflow (John 10:10). We’ll experience His love, which satisfies like no other. Our usefulness in His service will be maximized as we operate in the Spirit’s power. And obedience also brings glory to Him as well as blessings to us.

Surrender is the way to abundance. Won’t you humble yourself and give it all to Jesus?

Bible in One Year: Numbers 8-10

 

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Our Daily Bread — Nearby Neighbors

 

Bible in a Year:

  • Leviticus 11–12
  • Matthew 26:1–25

Better a neighbor nearby than a relative far away.

Proverbs 27:10

Today’s Scripture & Insight:Proverbs 27:1–10

Our neighborhood, like many others, uses a website to help neighbors connect immediately with those surrounding them. In my community, members warn one another of mountain lion sightings and wildfire evacuation orders, as well as supply one another with child care when the need arises. It has even proven to be a resource for locating runaway pets. By leveraging the power of the internet, those living near one another are connecting again in ways that are often lost in today’s fast-paced world.

Being in relationship with those who live nearby was also important long ago in the days of King Solomon. While family relationships are truly important and can be a source of great support, Solomon indicates that the role of a friend is vital—especially when “disaster strikes” (Proverbs 27:10). Relatives might care deeply for their family members and desire to be of help in such circumstances. But if they’re far away, there’s little they can do in the moments when calamity strikes. Neighbors, however, because they’re close by, are likely to know of the need quickly and can assist more readily.

Because technology has made it easier than ever to remain connected with loved ones across the globe, we may be tempted to overlook those living nearby. Jesus, help us invest in relationships with the people You’ve placed around us!

By: Kirsten Holmberg

Reflect & Pray

Who has brought you aid in your times of need? How can you come alongside those living nearest you?

Thank You, God, for giving us neighbors to show care for one another.

 

 

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Ravi Zacharias Ministry – A Human Circumference

 

French existentialist Jean Paul Sartre closes his play Huis Clos (“No Exit”) with the pronouncement, “Hell is other people.” The play offers a sardonic vision of hell as the place in which one must spend eternity with individuals one would barely seek to spend five minutes with in real life. As one writer notes, “The most terrible, exasperating torment, in Sartre’s eyes, is the agony of soul caused by having to live forever alongside someone who drives you up the wall. Their annoying habits, their pettiness or cynicism or stupidity, their disposition and tastes that so frustratingly conflict with yours and require, if you are to live in communion with them, some sort of accommodation or concession of your own likes and desires—that, says Sartre, is Hell.”(1) Living in a world in which tolerance is the highest value, most readers find Sartre’s vision highly narcissistic or the logical conclusion of an exclusively individualistic, existentialist philosophy.

For many others, however, Sartre’s sentiments are not so easily dismissed. Living, working and interacting with other people can indeed create a hellish existence for many. And most of us, if we are honest, can quickly think of the names of several individuals whose personal habits or grating personalities makes relating to them very difficult at best. Sartre’s honesty, albeit through a cynical lens, also exposes a truth about the realities of human tolerance. On the one hand, we generally base our capacity for tolerance on loving those who are easy to love or who are broadly similar to our own way of living and viewing the world. On the other hand, we are easily tolerant of external causes, ideals, and principles, which are quickly lost when we come into contact with individuals who shatter that ideal image.

I was reminded of Sartre’s insight while serving at my church’s hospitality ministry dinner. Homelessness and hunger for the working poor is a perennial issue where I live. While homelessness remains an abstract idea, it is easy for me to ‘love’ the broad category of people who are poor or homeless. Yet, every month at my church dinner for the homeless—the full-range of humanity on display right in front of me-I often see the ways in which my ‘love’ is merely a form of patronage. Eating with individuals who have not showered in weeks (or months), who suffer from mental illness or chemical dependency tests my love of humanity in ways that the abstract category of homelessness never will. A preference for categories makes it very hard for me to love the real people seated all around me.

A contemporary of Sartre, C.S. Lewis wrote about this tendency to love causes and ideals more than real people in his novel The Screwtape Letters. He saw this hellish tendency as a carefully constructed diabolical strategy. The demon, Wormwood, was advised to “aggravate that most useful human characteristic, the horror and neglect of the obvious.”(2) The obvious, Lewis notes through his character Screwtape, is the human capacity for both benevolence and malice. Their misdirection and exploitation is not as obvious to us. Diabolical Uncle Screwtape explains to his nephew Wormwood:

“The great thing is to direct the malice to his immediate neighbors whom he meets every day and to thrust his benevolence out to the remote circumference, to people he does not know. The malice thus becomes wholly real and the benevolence largely imaginary…but you must keep on shoving all the virtues outward till they are finally located in the circle of fantasy.”(3)

If benevolence, tolerance, or love are simply attached to remote ideals involving people we never have any direct contact with in the day-to-day, how can that really be benevolence? In the same way, how can we say we love our neighbor when our malice towards particular habits or personality quirks is on full display? How quickly we lose our temper with family members; how easily we show offense at those who do not see it our way; how readily we devise strategies to withhold love, or to punish our ever-present offenders?

Lewis highlights a predominant theme in the teaching of Jesus. Throughout the gospels, Jesus corrects the prevailing notion that the neighbor is one just like me, who agrees with me, and sees the world as I see it. The “neighbor” is other people—not an abstraction, but a living, breathing person with habits, views, and quirks that will not only get on our nerves, but also tempt us toward contempt. And love is only a real virtue when it is lived out among real, human relationships. As Lewis’s character Screwtape notes wryly:

“All sorts of virtues painted in the fantasy or approved by the intellect or even, in some measure, loved and admired, will not keep a man from [Satan’s] house: indeed they may make him more amusing when he gets there.”(4)

Sartre was honest in revealing the often hellish reality of living with other people. We would much rather love an ideal, a concept (the homeless, or starving children across the world) than the people right in front of us, in our lives right now. In the life of Jesus, we see a man who loved those individuals directly in front of him; he gathered around him a group of disparate people from tax-collectors on the left, to zealot revolutionaries on the right. He delayed arrival at a temple official’s home because an unknown woman touched the hem of his garment. He delivered a man so out of his mind that he had been driven from his community to live in desolate caves. In front of the most important religious officials of his day, he allowed a woman of questionable reputation to anoint his feet with perfume and use her tears and hair to wash them.

The love of Jesus is not a pie in the sky ideal for people he never knew; it was tangible, messy, and ultimately cost him his life. In Jesus, we see heaven on display in the hell of individual lives. If we seek to follow him, vague ideals about tolerance must give way to flesh and blood reality—loving the all-too-human in front of us.

Margaret Manning Shull is a member of the speaking and writing team at Ravi Zacharias International Ministries in Bellingham, Washington.

(1) Lauren Enk, “Hell is Other People; Or is It?” Catholicexchange.com, August 12, 2012, accessed July 10, 2013.
(2) C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters, Rev. ed., (New York: Collier Books, 1982), 16.
(3) Ibid., The Screwtape Letters, 30.
(4) Ibid., 31.

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Joyce Meyer – It Only Takes a Spark

 

It only takes a spark, remember, to set off a forest fire. A careless or wrongly placed word out of your mouth can do that. By our speech we can ruin the world, turn harmony to chaos, throw mud on a reputation, send the whole world up in smoke and go up in smoke with it, smoke right from the pit of hell. — James 3:5-6 (MSG)

Adapted from the resource The Confident Women Devotional – by Joyce Meyer

As children of God, we can use our mouths and the power of our words to heal relationships or destroy them. The scripture above shows how major problems are birthed by something as simple as wrong words—a tiny spark can cause an entire forest to catch fire, just as a single word can hurt many people.

Once we have said something, we cannot take it back, so we must be very careful about what we say. If you have said unkind things, apologize, seek forgiveness, and begin to use right words in your relationships.

Prayer Starter: Lord, thank You for giving me the power to create my world with my words. Please help me to be intentional in choosing to speak positive words over my life and in my relationships. In Jesus’ Name, Amen.

 

http://www.joycemeyer.org

Campus Crusade for Christ; Bill Bright – Wait and He Will Help

 

“Don’t be impatient. Wait for the Lord, and He will come and save you! Be brave, stouthearted and courageous. Yes, wait and He will help you” (Psalm 27:14).

Our surveys of hundreds of thousands of Christians throughout the world indicate that most Christians do not witness because of their fear. Even Timothy seems to have had the same problem.

His father in the faith, the apostle Paul, reminded him, as recorded in 2 Timothy 1:7, “For God hath not given us the spirit of fear; but of power, and of love, and of a sound mind” (KJV). That is the reason our Lord promised, in Acts 1:8, “Ye shall receive power, after that the Holy Ghost has come upon you: and ye shall be witnesses” (KJV).

The Holy Spirit is the only one who can enable us to overcome fear. So, as we claim the promises of God and appropriate the fullness and power of His Holy Spirit, we can know that courage.

A Japanese schoolboy once showed his courage in a way that puts many of us to shame.

“He belonged to a school in Nagasaki containing 150 boys, and he was the only Christian among them all. He brought his lunch to school, as he lived at a distance, and he dared to fold his hands and ask a blessing every day before he ate.

He had some enemies among the boys who went to the master of the school and accused him of ‘doing something in the way of magic’ The master thereupon called the lad before the school and asked him what he had been doing.

“The little fellow spoke up bravely, explaining that he was a Christian, and that he had been thanking God and asking Him to bless the food. At once the master burst into tears, putting his head down on the desk.

“‘My boy,’ he said, ‘I too am a Christian; but I was afraid to tell anyone. Now, with God’s help I will try to live as a Christian ought to live.’ ”

Bible Reading: Isaiah 40:27-31

TODAY’S ACTION POINT: Today I shall, through the enabling of the Holy Spirit, be brave, stouthearted and courageous as I go forth to tell others about the Lord Jesus Christ.

 

http://www.cru.org

Max Lucado – Your Resemblance to Him

 

Listen to Today’s Devotion

Pop psychology is wrong when it tells you to look inside yourself and find your value!  According to the Bible you are good simply because God made you in his image.  Period.  He cherishes you because you bear a resemblance to him.  And you will only be satisfied when you engage in your role as an image bearer of God.  Such was the view of King David.  “As for me,” he wrote, “I will see Your face in righteousness; I shall be satisfied when I awake in Your likeness” (Psalm 17:15).

How much sadness would evaporate if every person simply chose to believe this–  I was made for God’s glory and am being made into his image.  Why does God love you with an everlasting love?  It has everything to do with whose you are.  You are his!  And because God’s promises are unbreakable our hope is unshakable!

Read more Unshakable Hope

For more inspirational messages please visit Max Lucado.

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Denison Forum – Handwritten note by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. goes on sale: The Oscars and Christian grace

If you’re looking for a Valentine’s Day gift your loved one will remember, you might consider a handwritten note from Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Sometime in the mid-1960s, he was asked to define the meaning of love. Dr. King wrote: “Love is the greatest force in the universe. It is the heartbeat of the moral cosmos. He who loves is a participant in the being of God.”

Then he signed the note, “Best Wishes, Martin L. King Jr.” The rare note is for sale for $42,000.

If only everyone agreed with Dr. King.

How Hollywood sees the world 

One way our culture rejects Dr. King’s ethic of love is by rejecting those who most deeply share his faith.

A Penn State study found that “American society is in a downward spiral of interreligious intolerance.” “Highly religious Protestants” are among the groups that feel most targeted for their religious group membership and beliefs. The lead investigator noted: “When people see their religion or religious beliefs mocked in the public domain or criticized by political leaders, these experiences signal to members of entire religious groups that they don’t belong.”

A case in point: the Academy Awards.

The 2020 Oscars were watched by their smallest audience ever. According to Variety23.6 million viewers tuned in Sunday night. The show had six million fewer viewers than last year.

However, an audience of 23.6 million is still larger than the population of 177 of the world’s countries. The cultural popularity of the Academy Awards, together with the credibility they bestow on actors, directors, and films, can make it difficult to resist the worldview Hollywood promotes.

If we are to believe the movie and television industry, gender is fluid, same-sex relationships are to be celebrated, LGBTQ people are to be accorded protected status, marriage is optional and divorce is nearly inevitable, and life begins and ends whenever we say it does. I could cite popular movies and TV shows that proclaim each of these “values.” If we disagree, we are branded as homophobic, bigoted, and even dangerous.

And we haven’t even discussed the sexualized Super Bowl halftime show. If my grandchildren had been watching the game with us, we would have been forced to change the channel.

One solution for biblical Christians is to avoid all popular media. But even if that were possible, is it biblical?

Eating with tax collectors and “sinners” 

Joseph took an Egyptian name and wife when he became the second-most powerful ruler in Egypt (Genesis 41:45). Esther became queen of the Persian Empire; her uncle Mordecai ascended to “second in rank to King Ahasuerus” (Esther 2:17; 10:3).

Daniel served the rulers of Babylon and Persia from 605 BC to at least 522 BC. Jewish Christians continued following Jewish tradition (cf. Acts 3:1; 13:5) until they were forced from their synagogues toward the end of the first century.

Jesus set the example of cultural engagement by building relationships with Jews (Matthew 4:23), Samaritans (John 4), Gentiles (Mark 7:24–37), and tax collectors and “sinners” (Matthew 9:9–10; Luke 19:1–10). He called us to make disciples of all “nations” (Matthew 28:19), literally ethnos, meaning ethnicities or people groups.

Our Lord described us as “salt” and “light,” both of which must contact that which they are to transform (Matthew 5:13–16). To retreat from culture means that we lose all opportunity to change culture.

Living as a “guest” in this world 

At the same time, we are to be in the world but not of it. A ship is supposed to be in the ocean, but the ocean is not supposed to be in the ship.

Jesus prayed for his disciples, “I do not ask that you take them out of the world, but that you keep them from the evil one” (John 17:15). Scripture is clear: “Do not love the world or the things in the world” (1 John 2:15).

God calls us to “flee from sexual immorality” and to “resist the devil” (1 Corinthians 6:18; James 4:7b). To do this, we must first “submit yourselves therefore to God” (v. 7a). In his power we can defeat any temptation we face (1 Corinthians 10:13), knowing that “because [Jesus] himself has suffered when tempted, he is able to help those who are being tempted” (Hebrews 2:18).

The key is to see ourselves as “guests” in this world (Psalm 39:12). We care for our fellow guests, but we know that this world is not our home or theirs.

“God never stops loving” 

When our culture violates Dr. King’s ethic of love, Jesus calls us to respond in love. David Vryhof of the Society of St. John the Evangelist: “Why would we choose to love our enemies and do good to those who hate us? Because this is the way of God.

“God never stops loving, never stops caring, never stops blessing. Yes, it’s outrageous. It’s impractical. It’s unrealistic. It’s beyond us. Which is why we need God and why we need each other. Only God’s love abiding in us can love in this way.”

Who was the last person to love you “in this way”?

With whom will you pay such grace forward today?

 

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