In recent days, President Trump has seemed to grow increasingly incensed with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump called Putin “crazy” and warned that he was “playing with fire” before Trump claimed that he was essentially the only person standing between Russia and a host of “really bad things.”
In response, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev—who stood in as surrogate for Putin during the four years the latter was technically unable to be president—responded by posting on X: “I only know of one REALLY BAD thing—WWIII. I hope Trump understands this!”
To this point, Trump has primarily attempted to coax Putin to the negotiating table and end his invasion of Ukraine by offering a series of rewards—a place back with the G8, resource deals, and lifting sanctions, to name a few. As Conner and Micah discussed on this week’s Culture Brief, it hasn’t worked.
The truth is that Putin currently has little reason to pursue peace. He is winning the war, cares relatively little about the loss of life, and stands to gain by continuing to drag the conflict out. And there is little Ukraine can do, even with additional armaments, to change that reality.
If Putin is going to seriously entertain peace, then additional pressure will have to come from Europe and the United States.
Europe took a step in that direction with additional sanctions last week, though few think they will be sufficient to force Russia to the table. For that to happen, most agree that President Trump will need to apply pressure of his own as well. Congress appears ready to pass a bill that could help him do just that.
Will Trump sign off on sanctions?
A bipartisan bill in the Senate with more than 80 cosponsors would impose new sanctions on Russia by targeting its ability to sell energy to other nations. While such sanctions are hardly a novel concept, the difference with the proposed legislation is that America would also impose a 500 percent tariff on any country that buys Russian energy.
As Marc A. Thiessen describes, the bill would “create incentive for China, India, and other countries that would be subject to secondary tariffs to press Putin to agree to peace.” Given the way Russia has resisted threats and pressure from the West, pressure from its allies could be what tips the scales.
However, Trump has appeared hesitant to take that step thus far, despite declaring in March that he would support sanctions and even additional military aid for Ukraine if it became clear that Putin was responsible for the war’s continuation.
Most of the world agrees that we reached that point a long time ago. But even if Trump is not willing to impose the sanctions at the moment, Congress could still pass the bill and hold it until he is. Doing so would allow the President to apply additional pressure on Russia without actually having to cut off trade with its allies.
The delay of those additional tariffs could weigh more heavily in the President’s thinking than you might expect given the degree to which tariffs have become a staple of his foreign policy.
Why reality is often more complex than it appears
While China and India are among the most prominent purchasers of Russian energy, they are hardly alone. In fact, as many as twelve countries in the European Union—including prominent members like France, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands—would be subject to the 500 percent tariffs should the law go into effect. In total, the EU spent an estimated €23 billion on Russian fossil fuels last year, which is more than it spent on military support for Ukraine.
Moreover, five additional countries rely on Russian-made nuclear reactors, which require Russian-made fuels to operate. While the EU is attempting to phase out Russian energy by the end of 2027, those efforts still have a long way to go. As such, many in Europe find themselves in a bit of a quandary: excited by the prospect of renewed American support but fearful of what the tariffs would do to their economies.
Add in the President’s ongoing efforts to negotiate a trade deal with the EU—one that comes with a July 9 deadline—and the situation grows even more complicated. Trump would have the ability to potentially pause the 500 percent tariffs for “national security interests,” but only for 180 days, and the EU will need far longer than that to wean itself from Russian energy.
So while the proposed bill would seem like a fairly straightforward path to increasing pressure on Russia, the reality is more complex. And therein lies an important reminder for each of us today.
Our way or God’s way?
One of the most tragic characters in Scripture is King Saul. For most of his reign, or at least up to the point when he was driven to insanity by a dark spirit (1 Samuel 16:14), Saul legitimately tried his best to do what was right for his people and to follow God’s will. However, the difference between him and David (at least most of the time) was that you never really see Saul ask God how to do that.
Whether it was burning an offering to keep his soldiers from fleeing (1 Samuel 13), vowing that none of his men would eat until the Philistines were destroyed (1 Samuel 14), or a host of other examples, Saul epitomized Solomon’s warning that “There is a way that seems right to a man, but its end is the way to death” (Proverbs 14:12).
Israel’s first king stands as a reminder to us all that even when we have the best intentions and make decisions that seem right to us, they can still go wrong when we rely on our wisdom alone.
The reason is that it is difficult, if not impossible, for us to fully discern every consequence of our choices. We can and should try to see each angle and make the most informed decision possible, but in the end, we will never have more than partial information when relying on ourselves.
When I first read about the potential sanctions on Russia, it seemed like a prudent path forward. It wasn’t until I was reminded of the degree to which our allies in that fight would be harmed as well that the potential problems became clear. And the truth is that there are countless other ways the sanctions could help or hurt efforts to bring an end to the war. In the end, we just can’t know.
Fortunately, we serve a God who does. His “understanding is beyond measure” (Psalm 147:5), and he sees “everything under the heavens” (Job 28:24). There is no limit to his knowledge, and his omniscient Spirit dwells within every Christian.
So while we should not trust the way that seems right to us, God stands ready to help us understand the way that seems right to him. The only question is if we will take the time to humbly seek his understanding rather than rely on our own.
Both Scripture and experience point to the problems inherent to the latter approach, and that is just as true for presidents as it is for each of us.
Whose way will you trust today?
Quote of the day:
“Faith is a reasoning trust, a trust which reckons thoughtfully and confidently upon the trustworthiness of God.” —John Stott
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