Explaining the current conflict and praying for true peace

I remember being in a Tel Aviv hotel with a tour group when hostilities with Hamas in Gaza suddenly broke out. Our guides had to show us the location of the bomb shelters built into the foundation of the hotel (most Israeli hotels and public buildings have them). They explained how we were to access them and described the warning sirens that would alert us to do so. Fortunately, the night passed without incident, and the event became only a memory.

What was a possibility for us is now a reality for millions of Israelis today.

As you know, Israel has launched preemptive strikes on Iran for the purpose of deterring the Iranians from obtaining nuclear weapons that could be used against the Jewish state. Dr. Ryan Denison’s Daily Article explained well Israel’s motives in doing so: to keep Iran from continuing to develop such weapons under the guise of negotiations. They asserted that Iran had enough material to build fifteen nuclear bombs “within days,” prompting Israel’s intervention.

So, Israel’s purpose behind preventing Iranian nuclear missiles is clear. But why would Iran want such weapons? Why are they so opposed to Israel and the West?

And how can the answers inform our understanding of this burgeoning conflict and our intercession?

What is the history of the conflict?

Looking at a map, it would seem nonsensical that Iran, a country nearly four times larger than California, would want conflict with Israel, a country the size of New Jersey. The two do not share a border and do not compete for natural resources.

And while their religious differences explain much, conflict between a Muslim country and Israel is not inevitable. Israel has maintained a stable peace with Egypt since 1979 and Jordan since 1994. The recent Abraham Accords extended such relations to Sudan, Morocco, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.

What makes Iran different?

Israel and Iran were close allies from the establishment of the Jewish state in 1948 until the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Iran was the second Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel (after Turkey). However, this was under the dictatorship of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled Iran as the Shah.

The CIA and the UK supported the 1953 coup that installed him in power; from that time, he relied heavily on the US to maintain his rule. The 1979 Iranian Revolution deposed him, and he was given refuge by the US for medical treatment, prompting the Iranian hostage crisis. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini immediately cut off all official relations with Israel, declaring it an “enemy of Islam” and the “Little Satan” (the US was designated the “Great Satan”).

Why does Iran hate Israel?

Iran’s aggression against Israel centers on three factors.

One: Iran’s Islamists consider Israel an illegitimate state that drove the Palestinians from their homeland. Since Islam views all Muslims as part of the “ummah” (the global Muslim community), this is seen as an attack on Islam requiring a defense of their faith and people (Qur’an 2:190).

Two: Iran views Israel as a proxy of Western colonialism. A Western-educated intellectual named Ali Shariati, inspired by Marxist ideology, divided the world into the oppressed (including Iran) and the oppressors (primarily the West). He then framed a revolutionary ideology to oust Iran’s pro-Western monarchy and “liberate” Iranians.

Shariati died before the 1979 revolution, but Khomeini capitalized on the popularity of his ideas. His ideology continues to drive Iran’s leaders in their aggression against Israel and the West in response to the West’s (perceived) aggression against them.

Three: Iran’s leaders believe that the Mahdi, their version of the Messiah, will appear to dominate the world for Islam only after the Muslim world destroys Israel. To the secular West, such a theological motive seems far-fetched and irrelevant, but for the Islamists ruling Iran, it is central to their identity and perceived future.

Why would Iran want nuclear weapons?

So, we can understand why Iran would sponsor aggression against Israel, particularly through its proxies in the Middle East. But why would it want to take the massive step of seeking nuclear weapons?

One: To deter aggression from Israel and the West. Iran’s leaders likely believe that possessing such weapons would prevent Israel from staging just the kind of attacks they launched last night.

Two: To protect and advance their proxies in the region. Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other militant groups would be far more emboldened if they were protected by Iran’s nuclear shield and threat.

Three: To attack the Jewish state and hasten the return of the Mahdi. We would see such an attack as madness since it would undoubtedly prompt a response that would annihilate Iran. But if you believe that the Messiah would appear after such an attack to protect you from retribution, “mutually-assured destruction” is far less of a deterrent.

Why did Israel attack now?

These factors have been in play for many years. Why did Israel stage its attack on Iran’s nuclear capacities now?

One factor is the military. After Israel’s missile attack last October, Iran’s air defenses are significantly degraded, making the current attacks more effective. Hezbollah and Hamas do not currently pose a threat to Israel. If a military attempt to remove Iran’s nuclear threat is to be staged, now is a good time.

In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency recently warned that Iran is not complying with nuclear nonproliferation obligations and has enriched uranium up to 60 percent purity, close to the 90 percent level needed to build a nuclear weapon.

A second factor is political. President Donald Trump had given Iran a sixty-day ultimatum on a nuclear deal, which expired Thursday. Iran’s recent alliance with Russia, China, and North Korea was likely to have only strengthened over the coming months.

A third factor is ideological. Sharia law permits lying to non-Muslims in war to advance Islam; the doctrine of taqiyya also allows Muslims to lie under threat of injury or death. Israel is familiar with these customs and knows not to trust Iran’s leaders and their claims to want only “peaceful” nuclear power. If negotiations were to begin again, as Ryan noted in his Daily Article, Israel’s leaders likely felt they would provide cover for Iran’s clandestine nuclear arms program.

What is the path forward?

It is obviously too soon to predict how this conflict will end, but we can identify some possible outcomes. Let’s chart them on a rising scale of geopolitical impact.

One: Iran’s military and nuclear programs are so decimated that the nation’s threat against Israel and others is significantly degraded for years to come. This was the result of Israel’s recent attacks on Hezbollah’s leaders and military capacities. Perhaps we will see the same with Iran.

Two: Iran is able to launch significant counterattacks against Israel, turning this conflict into a sustained war with the Jewish state.

Three: Iran also attacks US troops and installations in the region (we currently have about forty thousand service members stationed in the Middle East), drawing us into this conflict.

Four: North Korea, Russia, and China join the conflict on Iran’s side, turning it into a world war.

But there’s a fifth outcome we can envision as well, one for which I am praying fervently. In this scenario, Iran’s population revolts against the radical leaders whose aggression prompted this war and replaces them with leaders more representative of the nation and committed to peaceful relations with other countries.

“Then our world will know the blessings of peace”

In addition, I am praying that this conflict causes many in Iran and Israel to turn from military solutions to spiritual hope. The spiritual awakening already occurring in both countries would escalate as millions turn to Jesus as the true Messiah. And God would use this war, as he has other conflicts in Israel’s past, to advance his kingdom (cf. 2 Kings 19).

True peace is found only with the Prince of Peace (Isaiah 9:7). When we submit our lives to the Holy Spirit, he produces peace as his “fruit” in our lives (Galatians 5:22) and we are empowered to “let the peace of Christ rule in your hearts” (Colossians 3:15). Then we can “strive for peace with everyone” (Hebrews 12:14) as “a harvest of righteousness is sown in peace by those who make peace” (James 3:18).

Former British Prime Minister William Gladstone said,

“We look forward to the time when the Power of Love will replace the Love of Power. Then our world will know the blessings of peace.”

Let’s pray for that time today, to the glory of God.

 

Denison Forum