The law of unintended consequences and the wisdom of St. Patrick

Israel’s defense minister announced this morning that its military killed top Iranian security official Ali Larijani in an overnight strike. In other news, the US embassy in Baghdad has been targeted by explosive drones, British Airways says it is suspending some flights to the Middle East until the end of May, and US gas prices are continuing to rise as a result of the war.

However, much of the focus today is on a narrow waterway that is central to the global economy.

A quarter of the world’s liquified natural gas and seaborne trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Iran has effectively closed it by attacking ships and reportedly laying mines in the strait. More than a thousand cargo ships have been blocked so far.

According to Stanford and Harvard historian Niall Ferguson, however, the Strait of Hormuz is potentially less significant to the world than the Strait of Taiwan. He notes that more than 90 percent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and 99 percent of the chips used for cutting-edge AI training are manufactured in Taiwan. The island also imports 97 percent of its energy supply in the form of oil, LNG, and coal.

If China were to seize the opportunity afforded by the war in Iran to restrict energy imports into Taiwan and technology exports from the island, the impact on the global economy would be immediate and catastrophic.

“The only real law of history”

Dr. Ferguson’s sobering article illustrates his oft-quoted observation: “The law of unintended consequences is the only real law of history.” Those who study wars can especially illustrate his maxim.

Japan thought bombing Pearl Harbor would force the US to negotiate peace, allowing the Japanese to retain some or all of the territories they had captured in the Pacific. Adolf Hitler thought invading the Soviet Union would enable him to seize control of its resources for his war machine.

Iran similarly thought it could rebuild its nuclear program after the June 2025 attacks and develop missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. However, many foreign policy experts warn that a nuclear-armed Iran would destabilize the Middle East and pose an existential threat to Israel. Other regional powers could pursue such weapons as well, and miscalculations could result in a nuclear exchange.

The US and Israel responded to this threat on February 28 by launching attacks on Iran. The war that ensued has now directly impacted more than a dozen nations.

“A war that’s nearly fifty years in the making”

In The Shawshank Redemption, when Andy Dufresne arrives at the prison maintaining his innocence, a veteran inmate named Red responds, “Everyone in here is innocent, didn’t you know that?”

It is a fact of human nature that humans typically do what we believe to be in our personal best interest and will typically find ways to justify our behavior to ourselves. This is true of all actions, including wars.

As a result, the ultimate solution for war is not military. This is not just because military actions so often bring unintended and escalating consequences, or that wars with weapons are the consequence of wars with ideas.

As former Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday, the current conflict in the Middle East is “about finishing a war that’s nearly fifty years in the making.” Iran’s Islamic leaders seized power in 1979, held Americans hostage in Tehran for 444 days, and have continued to direct the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism. This is because they are convinced that they are advancing Islam and preparing for the return of the Mahdi, their messiah.

UNESCO’s Constitution states, “Since wars begin in the minds of women and men, it is in the minds of women and men that the defenses of peace must be constructed.” But since human minds are fallen, such defenses cannot ultimately be constructed through human effort.

Filmmaker Stanley Kubrick claimed, “However vast the darkness, we must supply our own light.” If this is true, our future is dark, indeed.

“Its only art is to call back the souls of the dead”

The good news is that Jesus is still “the light of men” and that his “light shines in the darkness, and the darkness has not overcome it” (John 1:4–5). As a result, when we pray to an omnipotent God, he answers in omnipotent ways.

The great theologian and apologist Tertullian (died AD 240) said of prayer:

Its only art is to call back the souls of the dead from the very journey into death, to give strength to the weak, to heal the sick, to exorcise the possessed, to open prison cells, to free the innocent from their chains. Prayer cleanses from sin, drives away temptations, stamps out persecutions, comforts the fainthearted, gives new strength to the courageous, brings travelers safely home, calms the waves, confounds robbers, feeds the poor, overrules the rich, lifts up the fallen, supports those who are falling, sustains those who stand firm.

Most of all, prayer unites us with the One to whom we pray. When we spend time in his presence, his Spirit molds us into the character of his Son (Romans 8:29) and infuses us with his peace and power.

And he uses us to change hearts and minds in ways that change nations.

“The Lord opened to me a sense of my unbelief”

St. Patrick was born around AD 389 in England. Irish invaders captured and enslaved him at the age of sixteen. During his captivity, he later wrote, “The Lord opened to me a sense of my unbelief, that I might be converted with all my heart unto the Lord.” At the age of twenty-two, he escaped and returned home.

But the Lord later called him to return to Ireland, this time as a missionary.

By his death on this day in AD 461, he had established some two hundred churches in Ireland and led more than one hundred thousand people to faith in Christ. But there’s even more to his story: Irish Christians descended from St. Patrick’s ministry sailed to Britain, where they led multitudes to Christ, established monasteries, and copied books being destroyed elsewhere.

According to Thomas Cahill’s How the Irish Saved Civilization, these men “single-handedly refounded European civilization throughout the continent.” Lives changed by the gospel changed the world.

They still do.

Quote for the day:

“If I have any worth, it is to live my life for God.” —St. Patrick

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