Beware “the things you don’t know you don’t know”

I am taking a risk today by beginning this Daily Article with a story many of you won’t care about and hoping you’ll stay with me anyway. I never imagined I would write about this topic with the Dallas Cowboys, either. In fact, that’s my point, as I’ll explain shortly.

The Dallas Cowboys are having a terrible year. Their fans like me can’t wait for it to be over. One play from last Monday night’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals seemed to sum up their season: A Cowboys player deflected a Bengals punt late in the game. Per the rules, once the blocked ball crossed the line of scrimmage, if the Cowboys left it alone it would be theirs. They could then drive for a game-winning score. However, if one of their players touched the ball and fumbled it, the Bengals could recover it.

So, of course, one of their players touched and fumbled the ball. The Bengals recovered it, then scored a touchdown to win the game.

Cowboys fans were furious. How could the player be so dumb? How could the coaches fail to teach him such a basic football rule? The Dallas media and football social media have been scathing and unrelenting.

Then I read an article in which a Dallas Cowboys coach explained that the player, who was executing his assigned block with his back to the play, had no way of knowing that the punt had been blocked. He could not tell if it was a fumble or just a bad punt. When he saw the ball, he reacted as he had been trained to do, a fact the player later confirmed. While his fumble was an obvious miscue, his attempt to field the ball was not.

I was wrong about him, but I didn’t know that I was wrong.

“There are also unknown unknowns”

In Rumsfeld’s Rules: Leadership Lessons in Business, Politics, War, and Life, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld writes:

There are known knowns: the things you know you know. There are known unknowns: the things you know you don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns: the things you don’t know you don’t know.

The last category can be the most dangerous, in war and in life.

Israel didn’t know that it didn’t know Hamas was preparing for the October 2023 invasion that massacred more than a thousand Israelis and changed the course of the Middle East. Hezbollah didn’t know that it didn’t know Israel was weaponizing pagers to kill many of its leaders. The US didn’t know that it didn’t know Japan was preparing for Pearl Harbor or al Qaeda for 9/11.

It’s bad enough when we don’t know what we need to know, such as whether bird flu will become a pandemic or AI will threaten humanity. It’s worse when what we think we know turns out to be wrong, such as Israel’s certainty that Hamas did not have the capability to stage the October 7 invasion.

And it’s even worse when we know parts of the truth and are therefore erroneously but emphatically convinced that we know the whole truth (a misconception known as the “Baconian fallacy”).

Watching the Cowboys game from the overhead vantage point of the TV cameras, I knew they had blocked the Bengals’ punt and therefore assumed the Cowboys player who touched and fumbled the ball knew what I knew. I was convinced I was right. But confusing an opinion for a fact doesn’t make the opinion factual.

The man who denies the sunrise doesn’t harm the sun—he just exposes his ignorance.

Inoculated against the “real thing”

I was talking last Sunday with a friend who spent many years in the foreign mission field. He told me that he found evangelism much easier there than here. The people he met overseas had never heard the gospel and thus had no misperceptions about it. The people he meets here think they know what Christianity is all about and have already decided they don’t need what it offers. They are also much less open to hearing a message that contradicts their assumptions.

To illustrate: Before I went to East Malaysia as a college missionary, I was vaccinated against malaria. The vaccine used in those days gave me a mild form of the disease which my body then reacted against with antibodies that protected me from the “real thing.”

Satan loves to do the same, “inoculating” us with just enough of the truth that we become immune to the One who is the Truth (John 14:6).

We see this at Christmas. As I noted yesterday, many people think the beautiful secular traditions of the season are all that Christmas is about. Growing up, I thought the same. If there had been no such thing as “Christmas,” I would have been more interested in the biblical story of Jesus’ birth. As it was, I already “knew” the Christmas story, so I had no desire to learn more.

This “Baconian fallacy” goes a long way toward explaining why the miracle of Christmas does not change our world as it changed those who first experienced it. People in the first century were shocked and thrilled to learn that this child was truly Immanuel, meaning “God with us” (Matthew 1:23). By contrast, we see him as a figure in a Nativity scene to be displayed during the holidays and stored in the attic the rest of the year.

“They fell down and worshiped him”

Now comes my point: If we are not seeking a daily, transforming encounter with the living Lord Jesus, we are committing the Baconian fallacy ourselves. We are settling for parts of the truth rather than the Truth, assuming that what we have experienced of Jesus is all we can experience of him.

When the Magi met him in Bethlehem, “they fell down and worshiped him” (Matthew 2:11). When John met him on Patmos, he “fell at his feet as though dead” (Revelation 1:17).

When last were you awed by Jesus?

Why not today?

NOTE: Time magazine has named Caitlin Clark its Athlete of the Year. For my response, “What Caitlin Clark and Jesus Christ have in common,” go here.

Thursday news to know:

• Biden commutes roughly 1,500 sentences and pardons 39 people in biggest single-day act of clemency
• FBI Director Chris Wray to resign before Trump takes office
• North Carolina announces 5-year deal with Bill Belichick to take over as coach of the Tar Hells
• Only about 2 in 10 Americans approve of Biden’s pardon of his son Hunter, an AP–NORC poll finds
• In 1980: da Vinci notebook sells for over $5M

*Denison Forum does not necessarily endorse the views expressed in these stories.

Quote for the day:

“Jesus Christ, the condescension of divinity, and the exaltation of humanity.” —Phillips Brooks

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Four scenarios and the path to true peace

NOTE: Events in the ongoing Syrian conflict are changing by the hour. The following comprises what we know as of this writing, but the larger scenarios discussed are relevant even as further developments unfold.

Over the weekend, Syrian rebel forces seized control of the capital of Damascus, forcing the long-time dictator, President Bashar al-Assad, into exile in Russia. You are probably more or less interested in a country on the other side of the world depending on the degree to which you consider it more or less relevant to your personal world.

In one scenario, this news is good news for Americans.

In three others, it could lead to global war.

A timeline of the conflict

A civil war against Assad’s brutal regime has been ongoing in Syria since 2011. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed; half the population has been displaced.

By way of geography: Syria is bordered on the north by Turkey, on the east and southeast by Iraq, on the west by the Mediterranean Sea, on the southwest by Lebanon and Israel, and on the south by Jordan.

Consider a brief timeline of the Syrian conflict:

• In 2013, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, came to Assad’s support, halting rebel momentum against the regime.
• In 2014, US forces intervened in the civil war to fight ISIS forces in the country. The US continues to support Kurdish forces opposed to the Islamic State and to Assad. There are approximately nine hundred American soldiers in Syria today.
• In 2015, Russia joined the war on Assad’s side with air strikes that turned the conflict against the rebels for years to come.
• In 2016, Turkey launched an incursion against Kurdish advances on the border.
• In 2017, Israel acknowledged air strikes against Hezbollah in Syria, seeking to degrade the growing strength of Iran and its allies in the area.
• In 2020, Russia backed a government offensive that ended with a ceasefire with Turkey. Assad held most territory and all main cities; rebels held the northwest; a Turkey-backed force held a border strip; Kurdish forces controlled the northeast.
• In 2023, Hamas attacked Israel, triggering fighting between Israel and Hezbollah that ultimately reduced the group’s presence in Syria and fatally undermined Assad.

On November 29, rebel forces launched a new assault on Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. Eight days later, the rebels took most major cities and entered Damascus, driving Assad from power.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, a former al Qaeda chief, led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in this successful offensive. Though it cut ties with al Qaeda in 2016, the group has been designated a terrorist organization by the US.

Are we on “the cusp of a world war”?

Now, why is this conflict relevant to the US? To answer this, we need to understand the larger geopolitical motives at work in Syria.

Iran has been supporting the Assad regime for many years, engaging their proxy Hezbollah and other Shiite militias in its defense and utilizing its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to train Syrian forces. This was part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel, a nation its leaders have sworn to defeat and even annihilate to hasten the return of the Mahdi, their Islamic messiah.

Russia has supported the Syrian regime in part to project geopolitical power and status, in part to keep Muslim extremists in check in the North Caucasus, and in part to protect its naval facility at the Mediterranean port of Tartus and its sizable airbase in northwest Syria. The naval facility has been used to support its invasion of Ukraine; the airbase is used to fly its military contractors in and out of Africa.

Meanwhile, China is Iran’s largest trade partner and the largest market for its oil exports. China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are all part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a NATO-like alliance. In a variety of ways, they have been building an “Axis of Upheaval” to coordinate their widening conflict with the US and its allies in the West.

In light of these developments, Retired Lieutenant General H. R. McMaster, who served as Donald Trump’s second national security adviser from 2017–2018, thinks we’re already on “the cusp of a world war.” Philip Zelikow, who served as executive director of the 9/11 Commission and counselor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice from 2005 to 2007, agrees: “I think there is a serious possibility of what I call worldwide warfare.” And this was before the fall of the Assad regime.

Three scenarios

I have taught on Islam with four seminaries, traveled widely in the Middle East for many years, and written several books and numerous articles on the region. However, I would be the first to admit that I cannot predict with certainty the future of this crucial and vitriolic “hinge of history.”

But I do think we can summarize possible outcomes of the current conflict in four scenarios.

In what I will call Scenario A:

1. Israel determines that Iran is responding to the fall of Assad by accelerating its quest for nuclear weapons and launches a preemptive strike.
2. Russia, China, and North Korea then defend Iran by striking back at Israel.
3. The US comes to Israel’s defense.
4. American forces are then attacked, and NATO fulfills its treaty obligations by joining the war on our side.

This is clearly a pathway to a world war, one that could come quickly.

In Scenario B, the rebels now controlling Syria comprise an existential threat against Israel, drawing the US and the West into the conflict.

After rebels took control of Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the collapse of the Assad regime a “historic day in the Middle East,” one that “offers great opportunity but is also fraught with significant dangers.” Such “dangers” exist because the rebels, with their blend of nationalism and Islamism echoing the ideology of the Taliban and Hamas, are already regarded by Israel as a dangerous threat.

On Sunday, Israeli forces took control of a buffer zone on the Syrian border, which Netanyahu called a “temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found.” Earlier today, Israel confirmed that it carried out air strikes on Syria targeting suspected chemical weapons and missile sites to keep these weapons from falling “into the hands of extremists.”

Now imagine that the Syrian rebels determine that armed aggression against Israel is in their best interest.

• Would this bring the support of Iran and Hezbollah to their cause?
• Would this then cause Israel to accelerate military actions in Syria and Lebanon?
• Would this bring Russia and China to Iran’s defense, triggering Scenario A above?

In Scenario C, the rebels controlling Syria align with terrorist groups in the area.

US forces conducted dozens of airstrikes Sunday on more than seventy-five sites in central Syria, including known “ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps.” The barrage is intended to keep such terrorists from gaining power in the country.

As mentioned earlier, the group now controlling Syria began as an al Qaeda offshoot. While it claims to seek a more moderate future, such statements can be deceptive, as Dr. Ryan Denison warns in his recent article on the Syrian conflict. The Taliban, for example, is continuing to enforce a horrific form of extremism in Afghanistan, contradicting earlier claims to the contrary.

If the fall of the Assad regime leads to renewed terrorist activity in Syria, would this lead to Scenario B and even Scenario A?

A “new Middle East”?

In Scenario D, none of this comes to pass.

• The rebels seek to govern Syria in a responsible manner and leave Israel in peace.
• Iran sees the folly of building a nuclear threat against Israel.
• Russia, already embroiled in its invasion of Ukraine, decides to stay out of the conflict.
• Israel is able to conclude its conflict with Hamas, rescuing the hostages and moving into a stable relationship with its Palestinian neighbors.
• Saudi Arabia then joins the Abraham Accords, helping to rebuild Gaza and create a “new Middle East.”

We should most certainly pray for this outcome, but we should not pin our hopes for lasting peace on human efforts. There will be “wars and rumors of wars” until our Lord returns (Matthew 24:6).

Billy Graham was right:

In the same proportion that the world has trusted Christ, it has peace. There can be no lasting peace until Christ has come to the hearts of all people and brought them his peace.

There is no discord in Heaven, there is no strife in Heaven, for Christ reigns supreme there. Similarly, in the heart where Christ abides and reigns, his words become a reality: “Peace I leave with you” (John 14:27). The truth of these words has been proven in human experience over and over again.

Accordingly, let us “pray for the peace of Jerusalem” (Psalm 122:6) and the world, then join the angels in proclaiming that the Christ of Christmas alone can bring true and lasting peace on earth (Luke 2:14). And let’s model this peace by making the Prince of Peace our Lord and king (Isaiah 9:6).

As the prophet foretold, “Of the increase of his government and peace there will be no end” (v. 7).

May it be so for you and me today, to the glory of God.

Denison Forum

“A monument that transcends religion”

NOTE: The Syrian government fell yesterday, ending the fifty-year rule of the Assad family. As more is known, I will be responding later this morning with a Daily Article Special Edition after this article on Notre Dame Cathedral. For a biblical perspective on Syria’s ongoing crisis, see Dr. Ryan Denison’s Friday Daily Article, “Civil war in Syria escalates as rebels take Hama.”

President-elect Donald Trump joined America’s First Lady Jill Biden, Britain’s Prince William, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday to formally reopen the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris.

The five-year restoration has been beset with controversies, but the cathedral is ready to resume its status as a symbol of “the spirit of Paris,” the site of notable coronations (including that of Emperor Napoleon), and “a monument to the highest aspirations of artistic achievement that transcends religion and time.”

The last description caught my attention: Doesn’t it seem paradoxical for a church building to “transcend” religion?

And yet, this disconnect between places of worship and acts of worship is happening with great cathedrals all across Europe. I have attended services in England where the choir outnumbered the congregation and visited beautiful historic churches in Germany and Switzerland where only a handful worship on Sunday. Many European churches are being repurposed into hotels, rock-climbing businesses, dance halls, and even Muslim mosques.

When 60 Minutes recently reported on Notre Dame’s reconstruction, there was virtually no reference to the structure as a place of worship. Since less than 2 percent of people in France attend Sunday mass and only 44 percent of the population even believe in God, this is less surprising than it might at first appear.

Of course, this pattern is by no means confined to France. Secularism is advancing across Europe and America; by one estimate, as many as one hundred thousand churches in the US will likely close in the next few decades.

A barking dog and the Great Commandments

I was recently walking past a neighbor’s backyard when their dog began barking at me while rushing to the fence that separated us. This happens every time I walk past this yard. Other dogs in other yards on my walking path do the same thing. If I could speak canine, perhaps I could convince these animals that I am no threat to their domains and this is therefore an unnecessary effort on their part.

Then the thought occurred to me: They are simply doing what they were made to do. So are the trees that tower around me and the turtles floating in the lake before me and the birds flying in the skies above me.

The only part of God’s creation that does not habitually do what it was created to do is me. And you.

What were we made to do?

Jesus’ Great Commandments are a good place to start, calling us to love our Lord and love our neighbor as unconditionally as we love ourselves (Mark 12:29–31).

Jesus’ sinless example is another (Hebrews 4:15): He did just this in all he did.

My personal experience is yet another: In the days I spend loving God and others, I feel myself to be whole and at peace. Otherwise, my Augustinian heart is “restless until it rests in him.”

Serving my friend so he will serve me

Why is it so hard for me to remember this simple truth? It is not as if it is hidden in Scripture or opaque to my daily experience. The obvious answer, at least for me, is that I don’t want to.

I want to love myself. And when my sinful heart senses a competition between what it wants and what loving God and others entails, my sinful heart all too often wins.

On my better days, I recognize this destructive pattern and admit its fruitless and fallacious nature. In truth, the best thing I can do for myself is to spend myself loving God and others. This, as I just noted, is the path to my best, most fulfilling life.

The problem is that when I love God and others as a means to loving and serving myself, I am not truly and unconditionally loving God and others.

And so I conclude that C. S. Lewis was right: it is better to forget about myself altogether.

It helps to see this paradoxical pattern in other dimensions of life. Serving my friend so he will serve me is not truly serving him and is therefore unlikely to engender his service in response. Even serving my health as an end rather than a means is unhealthy, provoking stress over calories, workout regimens, and weight that is damaging to my well-being.

So in life itself, as Jesus said, “Whoever would save his life will lose it, but whoever loses his life for my sake will find it” (Matthew 16:25).

Why you are reading this article

How does this help us respond to declining religiosity in the secularized Western world?

The answer is found at the Christmas manger. Here Bethlehem shepherds personally encountered the infant Christ (Luke 2:16) and immediately “made known the saying that had been told them concerning this child” (v. 17). When they met the living Lord Jesus, they could not help but tell their world. They became the first evangelists and missionaries in Christian history.

What happened at the first Christmas can happen again this Christmas. When we truly, intimately, passionately love our Lord, we must love our neighbor. And no matter how secularized our culture and how empty our cathedrals, hearts hungry for such love will respond.

You are reading this article because many years ago, I encountered a group of Christians who deeply and genuinely loved Jesus and each other. I wanted to experience such love personally.

I still do.

Don’t you?

Monday news to know:

• NYPD releases 2 new photos of man sought in killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO
• South Korea’s ex-defense chief is detained over martial law episode
• “Wizard of Oz” ruby slippers sell at auction for a record $28 million
• Juan Soto reportedly breaks Shohei Ohtani’s record with monster $765 deal with Mets
• On this day in 1990: Lech Walesa elected president of Poland

*Denison Forum does not necessarily endorse the views expressed in these stories.

Quote for the day:

“Jesus is the God whom we can approach without pride and before whom we can humble ourselves without despair.” —Blaise Pascal

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