New data confirms the continuation of a nearly 20-year decline in births

According to CDC data from earlier this month, the birth rate in the United States continued its historic decline, with a 1 percent decrease in births in 2025, a trend that began in 2007. Last year’s rate of 53.1 births per 1000 women in the 15-44 age bracket fell from 53.8 in 2024. The total fertility rate is now 1.57 births per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1.

Financial insecurity is the most consistent factor in historical birth rate trends. With continued economic concerns and instability, it is no surprise that 2025 did not produce a baby boom.

Another clear explanation for the continued decline is a sharp reduction in teen births. Sociologists attribute this to decades of educational initiatives aimed at the topic. The birth rate for women between the ages of 15 and 19 was just 11.7 last year, an all-time low and 72 percent lower than in 2007.

Societal trends

The historic lows do not end at teenage years, however. For the first time, women aged 20-24 had a lower birth rate than women aged 35-39. These numbers reflect two significant societal trends: prolonged adolescence and an emphasis on family planning.

Prolonged adolescence is a phenomenon in which young adults carry the time of dependency and exploration deep into their late twenties and even early thirties. Changes in habits, trends, and the economic environment contribute to prolonged adolescence, as evidenced by the continual increase in the average age of marriage, which directly affects the birth rate.

The emphasis on family planning has led to increased accessibility to fertility technology and pregnancy preventatives. While family planning can be relatively rudimentary, it has developed into a large and profitable industry. From abortifacient birth control options to the IVF embryo selection process, this trend also comes with its share of moral and ethical questions.

Notably missing in the mainstream analysis of the 2025 data is the staggering 1,126,000 abortions that occurred, compared to 3,606,400 births. Abortions have slightly risen each year since 2017, even after the 2022 Dobbs decision.

A frightening destination

Fortunately, the United States trails several developed nations that have tipped into population decline. In the U.S., there were still 514,000 more births than deaths in 2025. The risks of eventual population decline are serious, though.

The downstream effects of below-replacement birth rates are slowly arriving in nations like Germany and Japan but are not yet fully realized.

The long-term future of social safety nets hangs in the balance as fewer adults grow up and enter the workforce. This is of particular concern in Germany, where projections suggest that a quarter of the population will be at least 67 years old by 2035. By 2070, as much as 61 percent of the population could be of retirement age, qualifying for “old-age protection systems.” Fewer workforce-age adults will exist to prop up an economy largely siphoned by retirement-age adults.

In Japan, depopulation is destroying the farming industry. Roughly 20 percent of homes in the island’s beautiful countryside sit vacant as the average age of the farmer nears 70. Population pyramids, like this one, provide a good visual of the demographic crisis.

The pronatalism movement

As a response to the looming birth rate crisis, a movement called “pronatalism” is on the rise with the help of a few significant voices. Elon Musk comments on birth rates often, regularly posting charts and statistics. Vice President Vance is a prominent supporter, as well, having explicitly said, “I want more babies in the United States of America.”

The broad message is clear: we need more babies to stave off population decline. The detailed policy playbook is missing, though, primarily due to the lack of unified, trusted voices dedicated to the topic full-time.

In the United States, a mild form of pronatalism exists through policies like the Child Tax Credit, which occasionally receives a financial boost, and Trump Accounts, an investment account that comes with a $1,000 deposit for children born in 2025 or 2026.

Other family-first ideas include housing incentives, childcare subsidies, federally paid family leave, and baby “bonuses.” But, without a large-scale lobbying campaign, it is hard to imagine significant headway on any of these concepts.

Not all pronatalist strategies are dependent on Capitol Hill, though. The movement seeks to elevate the societal view of motherhood and push back against progressive narratives that devalue the nuclear family.

A cultural change like this requires a surge in online presence through influencers, podcasts, and websites. This is where figures like Simone and Malcolm Collins, the founders of pronatalist.org, come into play. Their stated goal is to “Protect and maximize long-term human flourishing in the face of inevitable demographic collapse.”

Indirect pronatalist messaging is evident in a revival of homesteading, holistic child rearing, and other traditionalist ideas gaining popularity on social media.

Can the concerted effort to raise public awareness and fight for policy and cultural changes be enough to convince Gen Z to start turning the birth rate ship around? The statistics in developed nations with more dire situations suggest not.

A spiritual problem requires a spiritual solution

At the end of the day, our culture operates under the assumption that children are a liability, and if you are going to have kids at all, it should follow a series of prerequisites (ironically, marriage is not often considered one of them). While pronatalist fiscal and political concepts carry some weight in changing the tide, the best solution is spiritual, because ultimately, the problem is spiritual. Scripture speaks at great length on the importance of children and families, including a call to “be fruitful and multiply” (Genesis 1:28).

Churches should joyfully teach this pro-family, pro-life framework against the current of a world increasingly hostile to family and the sanctity of life. Christians have an opportunity to own the conversation on the birth rate and do so in a compassionate, Gospel-centered way.

Moreover, the topic of reproduction can be addressed through the lens of disciple making, the central command of The Great Commission (Matthew 28:18-20). Believers procreating and raising children through Christ-centered parenting is essential for human flourishing and a straightforward way to advance the Kingdom of God.

If nothing else, church should always be a welcoming place for families and children, facilitating an environment where younger adults in the congregation desire marriage and babies. Children are not a “problem” churches need to solve as they strategically plan services and ministry programming. Children are part of the church, too.

Our perspective on the birth rate does not need to be apocalyptic, but we also need to resist a dismissive approach. Here are four faith-informed steps worth considering in response:

• Find out how you can be part of ensuring a welcoming place exists for kids in your local church.
• Compassionately promote life and family initiatives and be a part of raising awareness through your conversations and online presence.
• Pray for our political leaders to lend their attention to this matter before it is too late.
• Pray for your church leaders to speak boldly on this matter and build or strengthen the pro-family culture within your church body.

Our God is the architect of the family. His designs for marriage, parenting, and multiplication have worked since the beginning–let us not forsake them now.

 

Denison Forum