Julianne Smith is a Distinguished Nonresident Fellow in Defense and Security at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and was US Permanent Representative to NATO from 2021 to 2024. In her new Foreign Affairs article, she warns that “Russia’s hybrid war has entered a dangerous new phase” of expansion into NATO territories.
For example:
- In late July, a Russian cruise missile crashed into Polish territory.
- Days later, three explosive-laden drones were found at and near an airport in Germany.
- Two weeks after that, Romanian F-16s scrambled to intercept three Russian drones over Romanian airspace.
- A Spanish jet shot down a fourth drone near the Moldovan border.
She states that these attacks on NATO countries “are designed to fracture the alliance’s unity, test the strength of members’ commitment to Article 5—the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all—and raise the cost of supporting Ukraine.”
In her view, NATO should continue building defensive capabilities, make the costs of continued aggression tangible, and increase its support for Ukraine. Such geopolitical analysis and strategy is, of course, what leaders and analysts do.
But behind every story of national and international engagement, there is a larger story to tell.
The “invisible hand” of God
In his very influential book The Wealth of Nations, Scottish philosopher and economist Adam Smith introduced the metaphor of the “invisible hand” to describe how self-interested people in free markets can unintentionally benefit society by responding to supply and demand. In this way, free market economies can naturally distribute resources efficiently without external intervention.
For instance, high gas prices are spurring interest in electric vehicles, which would theoretically lower demand for gas, which would lower gas prices. “Brand trust” prompts consumers to spend more on products made by manufacturers they trust, motivating manufacturers to improve quality, which benefits consumers.
There is a similar “invisible hand” behind the geopolitics of human history, one that is described not by human economists but by divine revelation.
For example, Ezekiel 32 conveys God’s warning to “Pharaoh king of Egypt”: “You consider yourself a lion of the nations,” but he will “throw my net over you, with a host of many peoples, and they will haul you up in my dragnet” (vv. 2, 3). He will use the Babylonians to judge Egypt for its many sins (v. 11), just as he later used the Persians to judge Babylon (cf. Daniel 5:30).
Since God does not change (Malachi 3:6), what he did in the past, he is doing in the present. If it was appropriate for him to judge nations for their sins in history, we can know that he is judging nations for their sins today.
In both cases, his work is an “invisible hand” that guides and employs human agency to fulfill his providential purposes. They may not even know that they are being used by the Lord when they are, but their finitude does not frustrate his omniscience.
Culture is downstream from religion
Passages like Ezekiel 32 are in God’s word as his word to us today. The Spirit inspired and preserved them because they contain perennial value and convey perennial truth. He could warn Egypt of old, knowing that such warnings would apply to America today. We should therefore see ourselves in the pages of Scripture and expect him to deal with our nation as he has always dealt with nations.
The key is to be a people he is able to bless, not a people he is forced to judge.
Such resolve starts at home. My friend Frank Wolf, the retired Virginia congressman, often reminds us that in a democracy, politics are downstream from culture and culture is downstream from religion. When human hearts change, human activities and collective values change, and politics then reflect who the people are and what they do.
When we read about Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and other geopolitical threats in the news, we should therefore:
- Pray for spiritual awakening to transform these nations and their leaders (cf. Jonah 3:6–10).
- Pray for believers in these nations to be emboldened as they share the gospel (cf. Acts 4:29–31).
- Pray for our national leaders to be inspired and led by God’s Spirit to seek his will and thus our best (cf. 1 Timothy 2:1–4).
- Pray for our churches to be catalysts for cultural transformation through what we preach, teach, and do (cf. Acts 2:42–47).
- Pray for believers to be the change we wish to see by making Christ the king of our lives and service each day (cf. Romans 12:1–2).
“The darkest hour is often just before the dawn”
As we pray for such a spiritual movement, we should pray that it begins with us (2 Chronicles 7:13–14). As we seek God’s hope for our people, we should ourselves be people of hope.
Os Guinness is right:
The story of Christian reformation, revival, and renaissance underscores that the darkest hour is often just before the dawn, so we should always be people of hope and prayer, not gloom and defeatism. God the Holy Spirit can turn the situation around in five minutes.
May those “five minutes” come soon, to the glory of God.
