“A massive Armada is heading to Iran. . . . Like with Venezuela, it is ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. . . . As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t and there was ‘Operation Midnight Hammer,’ a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again.”
That was President Trump’s message to the leaders of Iran earlier this week, though it appears to have fallen on deaf ears. To this point, Iran and the US have passed messages through intermediaries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, but it does not appear that they have talked directly to one another.
Turkey has taken a leading role in those mediations, and Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived earlier this morning for that purpose. So far, at least, neither side appears overly eager to budge, with Araghchi using part of his time in Turkey to decry the European Union’s decision to name Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization for their role in suppressing protests earlier this month. However, those looking for a diplomatic solution may have time, as President Trump does not seem to be in too much of a hurry to act, despite the threats he’s issued.
As of this writing, he has yet to decide on an approach, and that indecision stems largely from the reality that they don’t really have a clear picture of what they hope to accomplish. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has cautioned that regime change in Iran would be “far more complex” than what they carried out in Venezuela, and even there, they appear to be making things up as they go to some extent.
But if they’re hesitant to force a change in leadership, what are their goals? After all, the fleet they’ve positioned within striking distance of Iran was not exactly cheap or easy to relocate.
Four demands, in particular, stand out.
The terms for peace
President Trump’s first demand—and the one he highlighted in his Truth Social post referenced above—is that Iran not only put an end to its nuclear program, but also give up all of its stockpiles of enriched uranium. That may prove difficult, however, since the majority of that uranium is buried underneath the facilities that collapsed following the strikes last summer.
Second, Iran must “stop killing protestors.” He later added that “they are killing them by the thousands.”
While the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based group monitoring Iran, has confirmed 6,126 deaths from the protests, that number does not include the more than 17,000 that are still under investigation or the bodies that were buried by loved ones secretly to avoid government desecration. And, given that the government continues to arrest its citizens for connections to the protest, both numbers could increase over the coming days. Ultimately, we’ll never know an exact number, but something in the tens of thousands appears most likely.
The third demand is perhaps even less likely to be achieved than the first. President Trump called for Iran to limit the range and number of its ballistic missiles to such an extent that Israel would be safe from further attack. Given that those missiles are largely considered to be the primary reason that Israel hasn’t already attempted a regime change in Iran, removing the threat is likely off the table for the Supreme Leader and his government.
Iran’s unwillingness to consider this condition for peace is one of the reasons why these ballistic missile sites are thought to be high on the list of potential targets should the US engage with Iran directly. Israel would, reportedly, be willing to assist in such an attack and has encouraged President Trump to consider going this route if he chooses to engage.
Lastly, the fourth demand is perhaps the easiest for Iran to accomplish: sever all ties with proxy groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. While the regime would be loath to officially cut off all connections with these terrorist organizations, the truth is that sanctions have crippled their economy to the degree that most believe they don’t have much to offer right now anyway.
Yet, as with the others, agreeing to this demand would effectively mark the end of the regime’s influence and respect around the region, even if some of the same people technically remained in power. As such, while a deal between the United States and Iran remains possible, it’s difficult to see where they can find common ground.
So, where does that leave us?
They don’t have the cards
Hopefully cooler heads can prevail, further violence can be avoided, and—most importantly—the lives of the Iranian citizens who have already suffered so much can finally start to get a little better. However, that does not appear to be the direction in which events are heading.
While Araghchi may not have begun speaking directly with his American counterparts, he has been quite vocal about what Iran needs to see before negotiations could begin. Namely, he stated:
Our position is precisely that pursuing diplomacy through military threats cannot be effective. If they want negotiations to take place, they must set aside threats, excessive demands, and the raising of illogical issues. Negotiations have their own principles and must be conducted on equal footing and based on mutual respect (emphasis mine).
That last part about equal footing and mutual respect is essential to understanding why this situation still has a high possibility of escalating into further violence.
You see, the US and Iran are not equals, and Iran has never treated America as an equal. To ask for such treatment now, when their army is already overwhelmed, most of their people have lost all respect and fear of them, and a military force far greater than they can defend against is parked just off its southern coast, is simply foolish.
It makes sense that Iran’s leaders would be hesitant to show weakness, but pretending they are in a position of strength when they’re not is only going to make matters worse for them. Even if their legions of drones and ballistic missiles pose a greater threat than what American forces encountered in Venezuela, those factors likely represent a reason for caution rather than genuine concern.
To use one of President Trump’s favorite analogies, in the end, they just don’t have the cards, and the world knows they’re bluffing. Unfortunately, that’s not a mistake limited to Iran.
Made in whose image?
Throughout Scripture, we find examples of people who lacked the self-awareness to see their situation objectively. King Belshazzar, whose celebration was interrupted by a divine hand scrawling a message of doom as the Persian army was taking his city, seems like a fitting example (Daniel 5). However, he’s not alone.
Generations of Israelites thinking God wouldn’t care if they worshiped other gods, the religious leaders in the Gospels who were so focused on keeping the Law that they rejected its author, and Peter taking Jesus aside to scold him for talking about dying are all good examples of this mistake in action.
The truth is that when we forget who God is, it becomes far easier to forget who we are as well.
From the very beginning, we were meant to find the essence of our identity in the fact that we are made in God’s image (Genesis 1:27). When our lives are submitted to his will and we see ourselves through his eyes, we don’t have to be afraid of the areas where we’re weak or flawed, because those weaknesses do not define us.
However, when we live as if we are made in our own image instead, strength—or at least the appearance of strength—can easily become foundational to every other aspect of our lives. And when that strength is threatened, everything else becomes threatened as well. Owning our mistakes and understanding when we’re wrong are simply not outcomes we can tolerate very well.
That’s an exhausting way to live, yet it’s the path many people choose to follow.
So, as we finish for today, take a moment to ask the Lord to help you identify any areas where you lack this kind of self-awareness. Is there a part of your life that’s built on a foundation other than your identity in Christ?
If so, today is a great day to repent of that sin and find real, lasting peace in your relationship with the Lord.
Let’s start now.
Quote of the day:
“Self-awareness is indispensable to seeing the lines between what you want to be true and what is actually true.” — Jonah Goldberg
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